June 2026
One Current Market Observation: Right now, the fundamental value experts think stocks are expensive, yet we can’t pull back. Oil experts think oil is deeply mispriced and undervalued, yet we can’t rally. The funny part is I agree with both of them, but the price action is the only truth that matters. One Nugget of […]
May 2026
One Current Market Observation: Much like in past crises, the market broke to highs far sooner than any apparent recovery in the crisis at hand. Think back to Covid, or the Trump tariff war, or the current Iran conflict. Markets are discounting mechanisms and you need to be prepared to act far earlier than the […]
April 2026
One Current Market Observation: The Iran conflict has pushed geopolitical risk premium back into markets, and oil is the most obviously impacted commodity. In the past, geopolitical risk premium in oil was quickly faded because production tended to never go offline. The current situation has been quite the opposite and already, in terms of barrels […]
March 2026
One Current Market Observation: After a historic momentum run in 2025, parts of the market are now showing a cleaner split between “story” and “substance.” The highest-beta names are no longer moving in lockstep, and we’re seeing more selective follow-through instead of broad reflexive chasing. Citrini’s article on an alternative outcome of where the world might be […]
February 2026
One Current Market Observation: The historic move in metals continued into 2026, only to unwind in spectacular fashion. It goes to show that price moves often drive the narrative which can create a feedback loop of prices continuing in the same direction. All over social media, people were declaring a new paradigm and that dollar […]
January 2026
One Current Market Observation: 2025 was a historic, record-breaking year for the metals complex, with precious metals like silver and gold reaching all-time highs and significantly outperforming traditional assets like stocks and bonds. I still don’t understand the fundamental rationale for the move, but the technicals were clearly trending higher the whole year. One Nugget […]
December 2025
One Current Market Observation: I did a great job identifying the top in froth. Since then, the most run-up sectors have pared back significantly. Quantum and nuclear are well off of highs, and Bitcoin has fallen into correction territory, retracing from $120k to $80k. Newsflow has slowed down, and good news is increasingly getting faded […]
November 2025
One Current Market Observation: On October 10, 2025, crypto suffered the largest forced-deleveraging in its history. Roughly $19 – 20 billion in positions were liquidated within hours as altcoins cratered. The incident spoke to how much leverage can build up in a system over time when traders grow complacent and assume markets will keep […]
October 2025
One Current Market Observation: Stocks continue to trek higher, and most recently, we’ve seen a huge surge in the most speculative names. This euphoric price action in sectors with no meaningful revenues (Quantum, Nuclear) has raised talks of the market being too frothy. On a scale of -10 (maximum bearishness) to 0 (neutral) to +10 […]
September 2025
One Current Market Observation: The IPO market is always a good indicator of market sentiment. Recently, we have seen the IPO market not just crack wide open, but we’ve seen an incredibly euphoric performance out of tickers like Circle, Figma, and Bullish. One Nugget of Trading Wisdom: A strong IPO market helped me break […]