One Current Market Observation:
The historic move in metals continued into 2026, only to unwind in spectacular fashion. It goes to show that price moves often drive the narrative which can create a feedback loop of prices continuing in the same direction. All over social media, people were declaring a new paradigm and that dollar debasement justified the move. This is another lesson that the chart and technicals never lie, and even if the fundamental argument proves true, there is always such a thing is a market moving too far, too fast.
One Nugget of Trading Wisdom:
The move in metals, both long and short, was a widow-maker for many. This is why it’s so important to have clearly defined risk limits and rules for trading against a trend, as well as how best to define the backside of a move. Over the long run, historic moves will inevitably occur, and it is our job as traders to survive and adapt from these incidents.
One Reflective Question:
For any of these outlier moves, it’s worth cataloging what sentiment and narrative were like in the moment. Compare this saga to the narrative during negative oil prices as well as the dot-com bubble.
One 1%-Improvement Idea:
For any of these outlier moves, it’s worth cataloging what sentiment and narrative were like in the moment. Compare this saga to the narrative during negative oil prices as well as the dot-com bubble.
One Reading Recommendation:
In the moment, there is always a kernel of truth and people arguing about what a euphoric move will continue. The book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” explains how universally wrong that often tends to be.
Forget outcome. Let’s get better this month.
