January 2026
One Current Market Observation: 2025 was a historic, record-breaking year for the metals complex, with precious metals like silver and gold reaching all-time highs and significantly outperforming traditional assets like stocks and bonds. I still don’t understand the fundamental rationale for the move, but the technicals were clearly trending higher the whole year. One Nugget […]
YOUR AVERAGE PRICE IS IRRELEVANT IN TRADING
Why Traders Mismanage Positions When They Anchor to the Wrong Variable One of the most important corollaries in the broader discussion around Expected Value is a concept that trips up traders at every level: your average price in a trade is irrelevant to the Expected Value.Not partially irrelevant. Not sometimes irrelevant. 100% irrelevant. And the […]
THE HIGHLIGHT REEL — HOW TO SPEED UP YOUR LEARNING AS A TRADER
If you’ve ever felt like the market moves too fast for you to process — or that there just aren’t enough opportunities each day to get meaningful reps — you’re not alone. Every trader hits that wall. The concepts make sense, but when you’re actually in the heat of the moment, everything feels chaotic, unfamiliar, […]
Sleep: The Most Underrated Edge in Trading
If you ask most traders what they need to improve, they’ll usually point to the usual suspects: better risk management, stronger psychology, refining their edge, managing FOMO, sizing more consistently. But almost no one points to the one thing that affects everything — your execution, your patience, your impulse control, your learning, and even your […]
EXPECTED VALUE BASICS IN DAY OR SWING TRADING
The Single Concept Behind Every Trading Decision There’s one idea that sits at the center of every trading decision you will ever make — whether you consciously use it or not. It’s the silent engine behind risk, reward, strategy selection, and trade management. And yet, despite its importance, I’m still shocked by how many traders […]
December 2025
One Current Market Observation: I did a great job identifying the top in froth. Since then, the most run-up sectors have pared back significantly. Quantum and nuclear are well off of highs, and Bitcoin has fallen into correction territory, retracing from $120k to $80k. Newsflow has slowed down, and good news is increasingly getting faded […]
What Minute Bars Should I Use In Trading?
Ah yes… the age-old question: what timeframe is best? People often ask me why I use 2-minute bars on my intraday chart — and what type of voodoo magic makes 2-minute bars work so well. In this video, I’m going to exclusively reveal the exact voodoo magic involved — a result of the ancient curse […]
The Rate Of Change Is Everything When Trading Stocks
One of the most critical variables in trading, particularly when it comes to mean reversion strategies, is being able to approximate how sustainable a move is based on the rate of change of a stock’s price. Yes, the slope of a stock’s price over time is important — but even more important is essentially […]
Trading in No Man’s Land
Have you ever had a huge winning trade… only to give it all back trading the same ticker later? Or taken a dozen small paper cuts before finally catching the move — just to break even? Or maybe you’re right on the cusp of profitability but can’t seem to break through that barrier? If so, […]
Expected Value In a Trade Is Always Changing
In trading, there are certain concepts that separate good traders from great ones — and this is one of them. Expected Value (EV) is dynamic. That means your trade’s expected value — your risk, reward, and probability of success — is constantly changing. This single realization made one of the biggest differences in my own […]