One Market Observation:
While the market pullback wasn’t huge, the most euphoric stocks were taken to the woodshed. Those likely won’t re-rate lower in a straight line. Oversold single-name stocks can bounce without the market doing so.
One Nugget of Trading Wisdom:
Like with history, most markets have comparable environments in the past. We might not have traded those past markets, but we have the chart data to retrospectively study them and build playbooks for the present environment.
One Reflective Question:
The theme of 2025 thus far has been thesis-busting headlines (Quantum, Deepseek, PLTR, HIMS, etc.) What other thesis-busting headlines might be worth game planning for?
One 1%-Improvement Idea:
Creating a spreadsheet with all pending M&A deals and their deal terms.
One Reading Recommendation:
Howard Marks is probably my favorite market commentator ever and his memo archive contains priceless insights. While his observations are most relevant for investing, I find the concepts critical to traders as well. In this January 2025 memo, Marks holds court on whether the market has been in bubble territory.
Forget outcome. Let’s get better this month.
PS – Enjoyed this email? Please forward to a few friends! If this concept is a success, I’ll keep making writing these!
