How to Avoid False Breakouts in Trading
We’ve all been there — buying the breakout above resistance, only to watch price immediately roll back below the level and stop us out. One of the most common questions I get when it comes to choosing good setups is simple: How do I avoid false breakouts? The honest answer is: you can’t […]
When Do You Add to Positions in Trading?
If you’ve been following along closely, I hope some of you are already yelling at your screens: “Lance, we know the answer — it’s all based on expected value!” And you’d be right. That alone would make me very proud. But knowing that expected value is the answer and knowing how it […]
Day Trading Basics – How to Define a Trend
“The trend is your friend” is one of the most famous sayings in trading, and without question, my favorite quote ever attributed to Jesse Livermore. This obsession started when I was early in my career and just beginning to break into the upper tier at Trillium. There are plenty of clichés in trading […]
Consolidation: The Foundation of Sustainable Price Moves in Trading
One of the most important — and most misunderstood — topics in technical analysis is consolidation. At its core, consolidation is simply price acceptance. It’s the period where buyers and sellers temporarily agree on value, allowing the market to pause, digest, and reset before the next move. Without consolidation, price moves tend to […]
How Do You Choose the Right Stop in Trading?
Another essential topic I needed to cover in this course is how to choose the right stop. This is not a minor detail. Stop placement can make or break a trading system — and, over time, an entire trading career. In fact, it’s impossible to truly understand my trading decisions or the systems I […]
January 2026
One Current Market Observation: 2025 was a historic, record-breaking year for the metals complex, with precious metals like silver and gold reaching all-time highs and significantly outperforming traditional assets like stocks and bonds. I still don’t understand the fundamental rationale for the move, but the technicals were clearly trending higher the whole year. One Nugget […]
YOUR AVERAGE PRICE IS IRRELEVANT IN TRADING
Why Traders Mismanage Positions When They Anchor to the Wrong Variable One of the most important corollaries in the broader discussion around Expected Value is a concept that trips up traders at every level: your average price in a trade is irrelevant to the Expected Value.Not partially irrelevant. Not sometimes irrelevant. 100% irrelevant. And the […]
THE HIGHLIGHT REEL — HOW TO SPEED UP YOUR LEARNING AS A TRADER
If you’ve ever felt like the market moves too fast for you to process — or that there just aren’t enough opportunities each day to get meaningful reps — you’re not alone. Every trader hits that wall. The concepts make sense, but when you’re actually in the heat of the moment, everything feels chaotic, unfamiliar, […]
Sleep: The Most Underrated Edge in Trading
If you ask most traders what they need to improve, they’ll usually point to the usual suspects: better risk management, stronger psychology, refining their edge, managing FOMO, sizing more consistently. But almost no one points to the one thing that affects everything — your execution, your patience, your impulse control, your learning, and even your […]
EXPECTED VALUE BASICS IN DAY OR SWING TRADING
The Single Concept Behind Every Trading Decision There’s one idea that sits at the center of every trading decision you will ever make — whether you consciously use it or not. It’s the silent engine behind risk, reward, strategy selection, and trade management. And yet, despite its importance, I’m still shocked by how many traders […]