Expected Value In a Trade Is Always Changing
In trading, there are certain concepts that separate good traders from great ones — and this is one of them. Expected Value (EV) is dynamic. That means your trade’s expected value — your risk, reward, and probability of success — is constantly changing. This single realization made one of the biggest differences in my own […]
November 2025
One Current Market Observation: On October 10, 2025, crypto suffered the largest forced-deleveraging in its history. Roughly $19 – 20 billion in positions were liquidated within hours as altcoins cratered. The incident spoke to how much leverage can build up in a system over time when traders grow complacent and assume markets will keep […]
What Is a Trading System and Why do I Need One?
Why Every Discretionary Trader Still Needs Structure If you’ve been following my content, chances are you’ve heard me reference “trading systems” more than once. But what do I actually mean by that — especially if I wasn’t using any bots or algos to execute trades? Let me clarify something: You don’t need […]
Lance’s Bobblehead Concept for Traders: Focus on What Matters
You’ve probably heard me talk about it — on podcasts, YouTube, and even FinTwit — the Bobblehead Concept. It’s a mental visualization technique that helps traders focus on what matters and forget what doesn’t. The best part? Mastering it means you can imagine your own bobblehead figurine steadily rising over time — a visual […]
Game Planning: Preparing to Win in Trading and the Stock Market
Trading is hard. Making decisions in real time, under pressure, requires processing countless variables: What’s happening on the daily chart? What’s happening intraday? How does Level 2 look? What do I hope to see unfold? Without preparation, many traders make decisions on the fly — often impulsively — only to look back at […]
Are You an Analyst or a Trader?
As traders, we often scratch our heads over strange stock moves: A company lands a massive contract but barely moves. A takeover offer appears, yet the stock barely reacts. It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking like an analyst rather than a trader. The Trader vs. Analyst Mindset If you’re […]
October 2025
One Current Market Observation: Stocks continue to trek higher, and most recently, we’ve seen a huge surge in the most speculative names. This euphoric price action in sectors with no meaningful revenues (Quantum, Nuclear) has raised talks of the market being too frothy. On a scale of -10 (maximum bearishness) to 0 (neutral) to +10 […]
Do You Wait for the Bar (or Candle) to Close Before You Enter or Exit a Trade?
There’s one question I’ve been asked so many times I feel like I could answer it in my sleep: “When you’re entering or exiting a trade, do you wait for the bar to close?” I’ve had to explain my stance over and over — and frankly, I’ve run out of patience. So instead of repeating […]
How to Trade Around a Core Position Like a Pro: Mastering Dynamic Risk and Expected Value
If there’s one concept that should sit at the heart of every trade you take, it’s this: Expected value is always changing. And if you’re serious about trading, it’s your job to constantly reassess it — in real time — and adjust your decisions accordingly. Once you truly internalize this concept, it becomes much easier […]
How to Test for Edge in Your Trading: 4 Proven Methods That Work
One of the most important — and most asked — questions in trading is: “How do I know if I have edge?” It’s not a simple question to answer. In fact, it might be the hardest question a trader can ask. You can do everything right — follow your rules, manage risk, and read the […]