May 2026
One Current Market Observation: Much like in past crises, the market broke to highs far sooner than any apparent recovery in the crisis at hand. Think back to Covid, or the Trump tariff war, or the current Iran conflict. Markets are discounting mechanisms and you need to be prepared to act far earlier than the […]
April 2026
One Current Market Observation: The Iran conflict has pushed geopolitical risk premium back into markets, and oil is the most obviously impacted commodity. In the past, geopolitical risk premium in oil was quickly faded because production tended to never go offline. The current situation has been quite the opposite and already, in terms of barrels […]
March 2026
One Current Market Observation: After a historic momentum run in 2025, parts of the market are now showing a cleaner split between “story” and “substance.” The highest-beta names are no longer moving in lockstep, and we’re seeing more selective follow-through instead of broad reflexive chasing. Citrini’s article on an alternative outcome of where the world might be […]
February 2026
One Current Market Observation: The historic move in metals continued into 2026, only to unwind in spectacular fashion. It goes to show that price moves often drive the narrative which can create a feedback loop of prices continuing in the same direction. All over social media, people were declaring a new paradigm and that dollar […]
How Important is Volume in Trading?
Price and time tend to get most of the attention in trading, but volume belongs in that same conversation. In fact, if I were forced to strip everything down and keep only one additional data point beyond price, volume would be it — without hesitation. After more than a decade of trading and reviewing […]
The Best Trades Don’t Look Back
They’re simple to convey, yet incredibly powerful in application. One of my favorite trading heuristics is this: The best trades don’t look back. This is a direct corollary to another principle you’ve heard me repeat many times: The best trades immediately go in your favor. Not only should the best trades work right away […]
Measures of Overextension – How to Tell if a Stock is Overextended.
Traders constantly describe stocks as “overextended,” but very few ever stop to define what that actually means. And while there may never be a single universal definition, effective trading demands precision. Overextension is no exception. If you’re serious about capitulation trading — or any strategy that relies on identifying exhaustion — developing your own […]
How to Avoid False Breakouts in Trading
We’ve all been there — buying the breakout above resistance, only to watch price immediately roll back below the level and stop us out. One of the most common questions I get when it comes to choosing good setups is simple: How do I avoid false breakouts? The honest answer is: you can’t […]
When Do You Add to Positions in Trading?
If you’ve been following along closely, I hope some of you are already yelling at your screens: “Lance, we know the answer — it’s all based on expected value!” And you’d be right. That alone would make me very proud. But knowing that expected value is the answer and knowing how it […]
Day Trading Basics – How to Define a Trend
“The trend is your friend” is one of the most famous sayings in trading, and without question, my favorite quote ever attributed to Jesse Livermore. This obsession started when I was early in my career and just beginning to break into the upper tier at Trillium. There are plenty of clichés in trading […]